Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 3.161169 3.404434 3.678352 4.014692 4.424185 4.917743 5.577135
2025-02-23 2.770955 3.065905 3.419491 3.888702 4.520483 5.388945 6.786466
2025-03-02 2.581645 2.910298 3.322290 3.902360 4.751721 6.072681 8.696895
2025-03-09 2.437220 2.783767 3.232362 3.892871 4.928074 6.728226 11.248412
2025-03-16 2.301599 2.651304 3.113656 3.815535 4.970830 7.165018 14.096539
2025-03-23 2.239366 2.607255 3.106903 3.896501 5.287681 8.313369 23.962293
2025-03-30 2.130188 2.490688 2.985633 3.780917 5.223982 8.570915 33.247818
2025-04-06 2.030729 2.381020 2.865398 3.652405 5.109503 8.648971 46.280217
2025-04-13 1.955214 2.300048 2.780949 3.572829 5.075654 8.950428 107.483666
2025-04-20 1.926145 2.281564 2.786211 3.641509 5.356965 10.477635 NaN
2025-04-27 1.918053 2.291516 2.833876 3.788057 5.852934 13.693590 NaN
2025-05-04 1.879371 2.255145 2.807249 3.797997 6.035191 16.036006 NaN
2025-05-11 1.844338 2.224190 2.789817 3.828713 6.300292 20.388220 NaN
2025-05-18 1.782480 2.151385 2.701948 3.717181 6.154590 20.746595 NaN
2025-05-25 1.750067 2.120604 2.679530 3.729901 6.367258 27.330723 NaN
2025-06-01 1.716017 2.085765 2.648205 3.721322 6.517981 37.087844 NaN
2025-06-08 1.672852 2.035588 2.589061 3.651002 6.457814 42.256000 NaN
2025-06-15 1.658796 2.028424 2.600079 3.724625 6.896767 211.831260 NaN
2025-06-22 1.614273 1.973498 2.528690 3.619475 6.686005 167.979543 NaN
2025-06-29 1.569603 1.917284 2.453396 3.502175 6.417030 101.729453 NaN
2025-07-06 1.534716 1.875138 2.400421 3.429337 6.298761 111.844730 NaN
2025-07-13 1.525194 1.871225 2.411303 3.492211 6.689162 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 1.527248 1.884964 2.452666 3.625980 7.439327 NaN NaN